bims-mosdis 2023-05-21 papers

Lancet Reg Health Am. 2023 May;21 100498

Prevention of a dengue outbreak via the large-scale deployment of Sterile Insect Technology in a Brazilian city: a prospective study.

Lisiane de Castro Poncio, Filipe Apolinário Dos Anjos, Deborah Aline de Oliveira, Aline de Oliveira da Rosa, Bianca Piraccini Silva, Débora Rebechi, Jorge Márcio Pedrosa, Diego Alan da Costa Franciscato, Cláudio de Souza, Nitzan Paldi.

Background: Dengue is a global problem that seems to be worsening, as hyper-urbanization associated with climate change has led to a significant increase in the abundance and geographical spread of its principal vector, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Currently available solutions have not been able to stop the spread of dengue which shows the urgent need to implement alternative technologies as practical solutions. In a previous pilot trial, we demonstrated the efficacy and safety of the method 'Natural Vector Control' (NVC) in suppressing the Ae. aegypti vector population and in blocking the occurrence of an outbreak of dengue in the treated areas. Here, we expand the use of the NVC program in a large-scale 20 months intervention period in an entire city in southern Brazil.
Methods: Sterile male mosquitoes were produced from locally sourced Ae. aegypti mosquitoes by using a treatment that includes double-stranded RNA and thiotepa. Weekly massive releases of sterile male mosquitoes were performed in predefined areas of Ortigueira city from November 2020 to July 2022. Mosquito monitoring was performed by using ovitraps during the entire intervention period. Dengue incidence data was obtained from the Brazilian National Disease Surveillance System.
Findings: During the two epidemiological seasons, the intervention in Ortigueira resulted in up to 98.7% suppression of live progeny of field Ae. aegypti mosquitoes recorded over time. More importantly, when comparing the 2020 and 2022 dengue outbreaks that occurred in the region, the post-intervention dengue incidence in Ortigueira was 97% lower compared to the control cities.
Interpretation: The NVC method was confirmed to be a safe and efficient way to suppress Ae. aegypti field populations and prevent the occurrence of a dengue outbreak. Importantly, it has been shown to be applicable in large-scale, real-world conditions.
Funding: This study was funded by Klabin S/A and Forrest Innovations Ltd.

Keywords: Arboviruses; Dengue; Mosquito-borne diseases; Natural vector control; Sterile Insect Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2023.100498

Sci Data. 2023 05 12. 10(1): 275

Global transmission suitability maps for dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti from 1981 to 2019.

Taishi Nakase, Marta Giovanetti, Uri Obolski, José Lourenço.

Mosquito-borne viruses increasingly threaten human populations due to accelerating changes in climate, human and mosquito migration, and land use practices. Over the last three decades, the global distribution of dengue has rapidly expanded, causing detrimental health and economic problems in many areas of the world. To develop effective disease control measures and plan for future epidemics, there is an urgent need to map the current and future transmission potential of dengue across both endemic and emerging areas. Expanding and applying Index P, a previously developed mosquito-borne viral suitability measure, we map the global climate-driven transmission potential of dengue virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from 1981 to 2019. This database of dengue transmission suitability maps and an R package for Index P estimations are offered to the public health community as resources towards the identification of past, current and future transmission hotspots. These resources and the studies they facilitate can contribute to the planning of disease control and prevention strategies, especially in areas where surveillance is unreliable or non-existent.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02170-7

MMWR Surveill Summ. 2023 05 19. 72(4): 1-12

Epidemiologic Trends of Dengue in U.S. Territories, 2010-2020.

Kyle R Ryff, Aidsa Rivera, Dania M Rodriguez, Gilberto A Santiago, Freddy A Medina, Esther M Ellis, Jomil Torres, Ann Pobutsky, Jorge Munoz-Jordan, Gabriela Paz-Bailey, Laura E Adams.

Problem/Condition: Dengue is one of the most common vectorborne flaviviral infections globally, with frequent outbreaks in tropical regions. In 2019 and 2020, the Pan American Health Organization reported approximately 5.5 million dengue cases from the Americas, the highest number on record. In the United States, local dengue virus (DENV) transmission has been reported from all U.S. territories, which are characterized by tropical climates that are highly suitable for Aedes species of mosquitoes, the vector that transmits dengue. Dengue is endemic in the U.S. territories of American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). Dengue risk in Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands is considered sporadic or uncertain. Despite all U.S. territories reporting local dengue transmission, epidemiologic trends over time have not been well described.
Reporting Period: 2010-2020.
Description of System: State and territorial health departments report dengue cases to CDC through ArboNET, the national arboviral surveillance system, which was developed in 2000 to monitor West Nile virus infections. Dengue became nationally notifiable in ArboNET in 2010. Dengue cases reported to ArboNET are categorized using the 2015 Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists case definition. In addition, DENV serotyping is performed at CDC's Dengue Branch Laboratory in a subset of specimens to support identification of circulating DENV serotypes.
Results: During 2010-2020, a total of 30,903 dengue cases were reported from four U.S. territories to ArboNET. Puerto Rico reported the highest number of dengue cases (29,862 [96.6%]), followed by American Samoa (660 [2.1%]), USVI (353 [1.1%]), and Guam (28 [0.1%]). However, annual incidence rates were highest in American Samoa with 10.2 cases per 1,000 population in 2017, followed by Puerto Rico with 2.9 in 2010 and USVI with 1.6 in 2013. Approximately one half (50.6%) of cases occurred among persons aged <20 years. The proportion of persons with dengue who were hospitalized was high in three of the four territories: 45.5% in American Samoa, 32.6% in Puerto Rico, and 32.1% in Guam. In Puerto Rico and USVI, approximately 2% of reported cases were categorized as severe dengue. Of all dengue-associated deaths, 68 (0.2%) were reported from Puerto Rico; no deaths were reported from the other territories. During 2010-2020, DENV-1 and DENV-4 were the predominant serotypes in Puerto Rico and USVI.
Interpretation: U.S. territories experienced a high prevalence of dengue during 2010-2020, with approximately 30,000 cases reported, and a high incidence during outbreak years. Children and adolescents aged <20 years were disproportionately affected, highlighting the need for interventions tailored for this population. Ongoing education about dengue clinical management for health care providers in U.S. territories is important because of the high hospitalization rates reported. Dengue case surveillance and serotyping can be used to guide future control and prevention measures in these areas.
Public Health Action: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends vaccination with Dengvaxia for children aged 9-16 years with evidence of previous dengue infection and living in areas where dengue is endemic. The recommendation for the dengue vaccine offers public health professionals and health care providers a new intervention for preventing illness and hospitalization in the age group with the highest burden of disease in the four territories (Paz Bailey G, Adams L, Wong JM, et al. Dengue Vaccine: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, United States, 2021. MMWR Recomm Rep 2021;70[No. RR-6]). American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and USVI are all considered endemic areas and persons residing in these areas are eligible for the new dengue vaccine. Persons aged 9-16 years in those jurisdictions with laboratory evidence of previous dengue infection can receive the dengue vaccine and benefit from a reduced risk for symptomatic disease, hospitalization, or severe dengue. Health care providers in these areas should be familiar with the eligibility criteria and recommendations for vaccination to reduce the burden of dengue among the group at highest risk for symptomatic illness. Educating health care providers about identification and management of dengue cases can improve patient outcomes and improve surveillance and reporting of dengue cases.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.ss7204a1

BMJ Glob Health. 2023 May;pii: e011137. [Epub ahead of print]8(5):

Mapping malaria incidence using routine health facility surveillance data in Uganda.

Adrienne Epstein, Jane Frances Namuganga, Isaiah Nabende, Emmanuel Victor Kamya, Moses R Kamya, Grant Dorsey, Hugh Sturrock, Samir Bhatt, Isabel Rodríguez-Barraquer, Bryan Greenhouse.

INTRODUCTION: Maps of malaria risk are important tools for allocating resources and tracking progress. Most maps rely on cross-sectional surveys of parasite prevalence, but health facilities represent an underused and powerful data source. We aimed to model and map malaria incidence using health facility data in Uganda.
METHODS: Using 24 months (2019-2020) of individual-level outpatient data collected from 74 surveillance health facilities located in 41 districts across Uganda (n=445 648 laboratory-confirmed cases), we estimated monthly malaria incidence for parishes within facility catchment areas (n=310) by estimating care-seeking population denominators. We fit spatio-temporal models to the incidence estimates to predict incidence rates for the rest of Uganda, informed by environmental, sociodemographic and intervention variables. We mapped estimated malaria incidence and its uncertainty at the parish level and compared estimates to other metrics of malaria. To quantify the impact that indoor residual spraying (IRS) may have had, we modelled counterfactual scenarios of malaria incidence in the absence of IRS.
RESULTS: Over 4567 parish-months, malaria incidence averaged 705 cases per 1000 person-years. Maps indicated high burden in the north and northeast of Uganda, with lower incidence in the districts receiving IRS. District-level estimates of cases correlated with cases reported by the Ministry of Health (Spearman's r=0.68, p<0.0001), but were considerably higher (40 166 418 cases estimated compared with 27 707 794 cases reported), indicating the potential for underreporting by the routine surveillance system. Modelling of counterfactual scenarios suggest that approximately 6.2 million cases were averted due to IRS across the study period in the 14 districts receiving IRS (estimated population 8 381 223).
CONCLUSION: Outpatient information routinely collected by health systems can be a valuable source of data for mapping malaria burden. National Malaria Control Programmes may consider investing in robust surveillance systems within public health facilities as a low-cost, high benefit tool to identify vulnerable regions and track the impact of interventions.

Keywords: epidemiology; geographic information systems; malaria

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-011137

Pan Afr Med J. 2023 ;44 70

Global warming and mosquito-borne diseases in Africa: a narrative review.

Bachir Khezzani, Magdalena Baymakova, El Amine Khechekhouche, Ilia Tsachev.

Human activity has a direct influence on the climate on our planet. In recent decades, the greater part of the scientific community has united around the concept of Global Warming (GW). This process highly impacts the geographical distribution of mosquitoes and Mosquito-Borne Diseases (MBD). The examined scientific publications show that Africa, especially sub-Saharan countries were and still hot spot of MBD globally. The economic, social, and environmental conditions prevailing in most African countries have effectively contributed to the spread of MBD. The current situation is very worrying, and it will get even more complicated as GW gets worse. In this regard, health systems in developing countries will have serious difficulties in health policies and public health activities to control the spread on MBD. Therefore, the governments of African countries should do more to combat MBD. However, a part of the responsibility lies with the international community, especially countries that contribute to GW. In conclusion, the analysis of the scientific literature showed that with increasing importance of GW leads to an increase in the prevalence of MBD.

Keywords: Africa; global warming; mosquito-borne diseases; mosquitoes; public health

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11604/pamj.2023.44.70.37318

Nat Commun. 2023 May 12. 14(1): 2750

Modelling the impact of interventions on imported, introduced and indigenous malaria infections in Zanzibar, Tanzania.

Aatreyee M Das, Manuel W Hetzel, Joshua O Yukich, Logan Stuck, Bakar S Fakih, Abdul-Wahid H Al-Mafazy, Abdullah Ali, Nakul Chitnis.

Malaria cases can be classified as imported, introduced or indigenous cases. The World Health Organization's definition of malaria elimination requires an area to demonstrate that no new indigenous cases have occurred in the last three years. Here, we present a stochastic metapopulation model of malaria transmission that distinguishes between imported, introduced and indigenous cases, and can be used to test the impact of new interventions in a setting with low transmission and ongoing case importation. We use human movement and malaria prevalence data from Zanzibar, Tanzania, to parameterise the model. We test increasing the coverage of interventions such as reactive case detection; implementing new interventions including reactive drug administration and treatment of infected travellers; and consider the potential impact of a reduction in transmission on Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania. We find that the majority of new cases on both major islands of Zanzibar are indigenous cases, despite high case importation rates. Combinations of interventions that increase the number of infections treated through reactive case detection or reactive drug administration can lead to substantial decreases in malaria incidence, but for elimination within the next 40 years, transmission reduction in both Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania is necessary.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38379-8

J Med Entomol. 2023 May 18. pii: tjad057. [Epub ahead of print]

The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities.

Najmul Haider, Mohammad Nayeem Hasan, Ibrahim Khalil, Daniel Tonge, Shivanand Hegde, Muhammad Abdul Baker Chowdhury, Mahbubur Rahman, Manjur Hossain Khan, Rashid Ansumana, Alimuddin Zumla, Md Jamal Uddin.

Bangladesh reported the highest number of annual deaths (n = 281) related to dengue virus infection in 2022 since the virus reappeared in the country in 2000. Earlier studies showed that >92% of the annual cases occurred between the months of August and September. The 2022 outbreak is characterized by late onset of dengue cases with unusually higher deaths in colder months, that is, October-December. Here we present possible hypotheses and explanations for this late resurgence of dengue cases. First, in 2022, the rainfall started late in the season. Compared to the monthly average rainfall for September and October between 2003 and 2021, there was 137 mm of additional monthly rainfall recorded in September and October 2022. Furthermore, the year 2022 was relatively warmer with a 0.71°C increased temperature than the mean annual temperature of the past 20 yr. Second, a new dengue virus serotype, DENV-4, had recently reintroduced/reappeared in 2022 and become the dominant serotype in the country for a large naïve population. Third, the post-pandemic return of normalcy after 2 yr of nonpharmaceutical social measures facilitates extra mosquito breeding habitats, especially in construction sites. Community engagement and regular monitoring and destruction of Aedes mosquitoes' habitats should be prioritized to control dengue virus outbreaks in Bangladesh.

Keywords: 2022 dengue outbreak; Bangladesh; DENV-4; rainfall; serotype

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjad057

Malar J. 2023 May 15. 22(1): 156

Household living conditions and individual behaviours associated with malaria risk: a community-based survey in the Limpopo River Valley, 2020, South Africa.

Sean M Patrick, Marc-Karim Bendiane, Taneshka Kruger, Bernice N Harris, Megan A Riddin, Helene Trehard, Christiaan de Jager, Riana Bornman, Jean Gaudart.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decade, implementation of multiple malaria control strategies in most countries has largely contributed to advance the global malaria elimination agenda. Nevertheless, in some regions, seasonal epidemics may adversely affect the health of local populations. In South Africa, Plasmodium falciparum malaria is still present, with the Vhembe District experiencing an incidence rate of 3.79 cases/1000 person-years in 2018, particularly in the Limpopo River Valley, bordering Zimbabwe. To elucidate the complexity of the mechanisms involved in local regular malaria outbreaks, a community-based survey was implemented in 2020 that focused on the relationship between housing conditions and malaria risky behaviours.
METHODS: The community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among the population of three study sites in the Vhembe District, which were selected based on malaria incidence rate, social and health characteristics of inhabitants. The household survey used a random sampling strategy, where data were collected through face-to-face questionnaires and field notes; to described the housing conditions (housing questionnaire), and focus on individual behaviours of household members. Statistical analyses were performed combining hierarchical classifications and logistic regressions.
RESULTS: In this study, 398 households were described, covering a population of 1681 inhabitants of all ages, and 439 adults who participated in community-based survey. The analysis of situations at risk of malaria showed that the influence of contextual factors, particularly those defined by the type of habitat, was significant. Housing conditions and poor living environments were factors of malaria exposure and history, regardless of site of investigation, individual preventive behaviours and personal characteristics of inhabitants. Multivariate models showed that, considering all personal characteristics or behaviours of inhabitants, housing conditions such as overcrowding pressures were significantly associated with individual malaria risk.
CONCLUSIONS: The results showed the overwhelming weight of social and contextual factors on risk situations. Considering the Fundamental Causes Theory, malaria control policies based on health behaviour prevention, should reinforce access to care or promoting health education actions. Overarching economic development interventions in targeted geographical areas and populations have to be implemented, so that malaria control and elimination strategies can be efficiently and effectively managed.

Keywords: Border; Community-based survey; Health Behaviors; Housing conditions; Limpopo; Malaria; South Africa

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04585-4

Virus Evol. 2023 ;9(1): vead013

An advanced sequence clustering and designation workflow reveals the enzootic maintenance of a dominant West Nile virus subclade in Germany.

Pauline Dianne Santos, Anne Günther, Markus Keller, Timo Homeier-Bachmann, Martin H Groschup, Martin Beer, Dirk Höper, Ute Ziegler.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most widespread arthropod-borne (arbo) virus and the primary cause of arboviral encephalitis globally. Members of WNV species genetically diverged and are classified into different hierarchical groups below species rank. However, the demarcation criteria for allocating WNV sequences into these groups remain individual and inconsistent, and the use of names for different levels of the hierarchical levels is unstructured. In order to have an objective and comprehensible grouping of WNV sequences, we developed an advanced grouping workflow using the 'affinity propagation clustering' algorithm and newly included the 'agglomerative hierarchical clustering' algorithm for the allocation of WNV sequences into different groups below species rank. In addition, we propose to use a fixed set of terms for the hierarchical naming of WNV below species level and a clear decimal numbering system to label the determined groups. For validation, we applied the refined workflow to WNV sequences that have been previously grouped into various lineages, clades, and clusters in other studies. Although our workflow regrouped some WNV sequences, overall, it generally corresponds with previous groupings. We employed our novel approach to the sequences from the WNV circulation in Germany 2020, primarily from WNV-infected birds and horses. Besides two newly defined minor (sub)clusters comprising only three sequences each, Subcluster 2.5.3.4.3c was the predominant WNV sequence group detected in Germany from 2018 to 2020. This predominant subcluster was also associated with at least five human WNV infections in 2019-20. In summary, our analyses imply that the genetic diversity of the WNV population in Germany is shaped by enzootic maintenance of the dominant WNV subcluster accompanied by sporadic incursions of other rare clusters and subclusters. Moreover, we show that our refined approach for sequence grouping yields meaningful results. Although we primarily aimed at a more detailed WNV classification, the presented workflow can also be applied to the objective genotyping of other virus species.

Keywords: West Nile virus Germany; objective sequence clustering; virus sub species nomenclature

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ve/vead013