Transbound Emerg Dis. 2021 Apr 20.
Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and West Nile virus (WNV) are two important emerging Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, typically Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in temperate regions. In Morocco, several outbreaks of WNV (1996, 2003, and 2010), affecting horses mostly, have been reported in northwestern regions resulting in the death of 55 horses and one-person cumulatively. Serological evidence of WNV local circulation, performed one year after the latest outbreak, revealed WNV neutralizing bodies in 59 out of 499 tested participants (Hicham El Rhaffouli et al., 2012). The country also shares common borders with northern Mauritania, where RVF is often documented. Human movement, livestock trade, climate changes, and the availability of susceptible mosquito vectors are expected to increase the spread of these diseases in the country. Thus, in this study, we gathered a dataset summarizing occurrences of Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in the country, and generated model prediction for their potential distribution under both current and future (2050) climate conditions, as a proxy to identify regions at-risk of RVF and WNV probable expansion. We found that the northwestern regions (where the population is most concentrated), specifically along the Atlantic coastline, are highly suitable for Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens, under present-day conditions. Future model scenarios anticipated possible range changes for the three mosquitoes under all climatic assumptions. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are currently not suitable, even under the most optimist scenario, thus placing additional human populations at risk. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes. Public health officials, entomological surveillance, and control delegation must augment efforts and continuously monitor these areas to reduce and minimize human infection risk.
Keywords:
Ae. detritus
;
Aedes caspius
;
Cx. pipiens
; Climate change; Ecological niche modeling; Future; Present; Rift Valley Fever; West Nile virus; potential distribution