J Acad Nutr Diet. 2022 Dec 19. pii: S2212-2672(22)01253-9. [Epub ahead of print]
Tyler J Titcomb,
Buyun Liu,
Terry L Wahls,
Linda G Snetselaar,
Aladdin H Shadyab,
Fred K Tabung,
Nazmus Saquib,
Chrisa Arcan,
Lesley F Tinker,
Robert B Wallace,
Wei Bao.
BACKGROUND: Previous attempts to identify low-carbohydrate diets (LCDs) in epidemiological studies relied on the LCD score, which is unable to identify ketogenic dieters. Ketogenic ratios of macronutrients are clinical equations proposed to predict ketogenic diets; however, their utility in epidemiological studies is unknown.
OBJECTIVE: To determine the number of participants consuming a ketogenic diet, compare ketogenic ratios to the LCD score, and evaluate their association with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) with 17.9 ± 6.03 years of follow-up. Baseline food frequency questionnaires were used to calculate the ketogenic ratio as follows: (0.9*grams fat + 0.46*grams protein) divided by (0.1*grams fat + 0.58*grams protein + grams net carbohydrate), a value ≥1.5 is the minimum threshold for a ketogenic diet.
PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: 125,982 postmenopausal women without diabetes (age 50-79 years) enrolled in the multicenter WHI observational study and clinical trials were included.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of self-reported incident T2DM.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PERFORMED: Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, race, ethnicity, education, income, health insurance, relationship status, geographic region, WHI study component, female hormone use, smoking status, alcohol use, recreational physical activity, total energy intake, diet quality, body mass index, hyperlipidemia, and hypertension, were used to compare hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for T2DM between quintiles of the ketogenic ratio.
RESULTS: 18,775 incident cases of T2DM occurred. The median ketogenic ratio was 0.35 (interquartile range 0.28-0.42) and 15 individuals (0.01%) exceeded the threshold for a ketogenic diet. Higher ketogenic ratio quintiles were associated with increased risk of T2DM in a dose-dependent manner. Comparing extreme quintiles of the ketogenic ratio, the HR and 95% CI for diabetes was 1.24 (1.18-1.31; Ptrend < 0.001) in fully adjusted models. Similarly, comparing extreme quintiles, the HR (95% CI) for diabetes was 1.36 (1.29-1.43; Ptrend < 0.001) for the LCD score and 1.13 (1.07-1.19; Ptrend < 0.001) for the simplified ketogenic ratio in fully adjusted models.
CONCLUSION: Increasing ketogenic ratio values are associated with increased risk of T2DM and align well with LCD scores; however, too few participants consumed a ketogenic diet to determine its association with T2DM.
Keywords: diabetes; ketogenic diet; ketogenic ratio; low-carbohydrate diet score; nutritional epidemiology; postmenopausal women