bims-covirf 2021-12-19 papers

Issue of 2021–12–19
two papers selected by
Catherine Rycroft, BresMed

BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Dec;pii: e006434. [Epub ahead of print]6(12):

The isolated effect of age on the risk of COVID-19 severe outcomes: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

Karla Romero Starke, David Reissig, Gabriela Petereit-Haack, Stefanie Schmauder, Albert Nienhaus, Andreas Seidler.

INTRODUCTION: Increased age has been reported to be a factor for COVID-19 severe outcomes. However, many studies do not consider the age dependency of comorbidities, which influence the course of disease. Protection strategies often target individuals after a certain age, which may not necessarily be evidence based. The aim of this review was to quantify the isolated effect of age on hospitalisation, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), mechanical ventilation and death.
METHODS: This review was based on an umbrella review, in which Pubmed, Embase and preprint databases were searched on 10 December 2020, for relevant reviews on COVID-19 disease severity. Two independent reviewers evaluated the primary studies using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results were extracted, and each study was assessed for risk of bias. The isolated effect of age was estimated by meta-analysis, and the quality of evidence was assessed using Grades of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework.
RESULTS: Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria (case mortality: n=14, in-hospital mortality: n=44, hospitalisation: n=16, admission to ICU: n=12, mechanical ventilation: n=7). The risk of in-hospital and case mortality increased per age year by 5.7% and 7.4%, respectively (effect size (ES) in-hospital mortality=1.057, 95% CI 1.038 to 1.054; ES case mortality=1.074, 95% CI 1.061 to 1.087), while the risk of hospitalisation increased by 3.4% per age year (ES=1.034, 95% CI 1.021 to 1.048). No increased risk was observed for ICU admission and intubation by age year. There was no evidence of a specific age threshold at which the risk accelerates considerably. The confidence of evidence was high for mortality and hospitalisation.
CONCLUSIONS: Our results show a best-possible quantification of the increase in COVID-19 disease severity due to age. Rather than implementing age thresholds, prevention programmes should consider the continuous increase in risk. There is a need for continuous, high-quality research and 'living' reviews to evaluate the evidence throughout the pandemic, as results may change due to varying circumstances.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; systematic review

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-006434

Confl Health. 2021 Dec 14. 15(1): 89

Clinical features and predictors of mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Niger.

Patrick D M C Katoto, Issoufou Aboubacar, Batouré Oumarou, Eric Adehossi, Blanche-Philomene Melanga Anya, Aida Mounkaila, Adamou Moustapha, El Khalef Ishagh, Gbaguidi Aichatou Diawara, Biey Joseph Nsiari-Muzeyi, Tambwe Didier, Charles Shey Wiysonge.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 has spread across the African continent, including Niger. Yet very little is known about the phenotype of people who tested positive for COVID-19. In this humanitarian crises region, we aimed at characterizing variation in clinical features among hospitalized patients with COVID-19-like syndrome and to determine predictors associated with COVID-19 mortality among those with confirmed COVID-19.
METHODS: The study was a retrospective nationwide cohort of hospitalized patients isolated for COVID-19 infection, using the health data of the National Health Information System from 19 March 2020 (onset of the pandemic) to 17 November 2020. All hospitalized patients with COVID-19-like syndrome at admission were included. A Cox-proportional regression model was built to identify predictors of in-hospital death among patients with confirmed COVID-19.
RESULTS: Sixty-five percent (472/729) of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 like syndrome tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 among which, 70 (15%) died. Among the patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection, age was significantly associated with increased odds of reporting cough (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.03) and fever/chills (aOR 1.02; 95% CI 1.02-1.04). Comorbidity was associated with increased odds of presenting with cough (aOR 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.45) and shortness of breath (aOR 2.03; 95% CI 1.27-3.26) at admission. In addition, comorbidity (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 2.04; 95% CI 2.38-6.35), shortness of breath at baseline (aHR 2.04; 95% CI 2.38-6.35) and being 60 years or older (aHR 5.34; 95% CI 3.25-8.75) increased the risk of COVID-19 mortality two to five folds.
CONCLUSION: Comorbidity, shortness of breath on admission, and being aged 60 years or older are associated with a higher risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in a humanitarian crisis setting. While robust prospective data are needed to guide evidence, our data might aid intensive care resource allocation in Niger.

Keywords: Africa; Baseline characteristics; Humanitarian crisis; Mortality; SARS-CoV-2

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-021-00426-w