bims-covirf 2021-10-31 papers

Issue of 2021–10–31
three papers selected by
Catherine Rycroft, BresMed

BMJ Open. 2021 10 25. 11(10): e052777

Diabetes, hypertension, body mass index, smoking and COVID-19-related mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

Yahya Mahamat-Saleh, Thibault Fiolet, Mathieu Edouard Rebeaud, Matthieu Mulot, Anthony Guihur, Douae El Fatouhi, Nasser Laouali, Nathan Peiffer-Smadja, Dagfinn Aune, Gianluca Severi.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of observational studies to investigate the association between diabetes, hypertension, body mass index (BMI) or smoking with the risk of death in patients with COVID-19 and to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to these conditions.
METHODS: Relevant observational studies were identified by searches in the PubMed, Cochrane library and Embase databases through 14 November 2020. Random-effects models were used to estimate summary relative risks (SRRs) and 95% CIs. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Cochrane methods and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework.
RESULTS: A total of 186 studies representing 210 447 deaths among 1 304 587 patients with COVID-19 were included in this analysis. The SRR for death in patients with COVID-19 was 1.54 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.64, I2=92%, n=145, low certainty) for diabetes and 1.42 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.54, I2=90%, n=127, low certainty) for hypertension compared with patients without each of these comorbidities. Regarding obesity, the SSR was 1.45 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.61, I2=91%, n=54, high certainty) for patients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 compared with those with BMI <30 kg/m2 and 1.12 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.17, I2=68%, n=25) per 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. There was evidence of a J-shaped non-linear dose-response relationship between BMI and mortality from COVID-19, with the nadir of the curve at a BMI of around 22-24, and a 1.5-2-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality with extreme obesity (BMI of 40-45). The SRR was 1.28 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.40, I2=74%, n=28, low certainty) for ever, 1.29 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.62, I2=84%, n=19) for current and 1.25 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.42, I2=75%, n=14) for former smokers compared with never smokers. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death was increased by 14%, 11%, 12% and 7% for diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking, respectively. The proportion of deaths attributable to diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking was 8%, 7%, 11% and 2%, respectively.
CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that diabetes, hypertension, obesity and smoking were associated with higher COVID-19 mortality, contributing to nearly 30% of COVID-19 deaths.
TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020218115.

Keywords: COVID-19; epidemiology; general diabetes; hypertension

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-052777

EClinicalMedicine. 2021 Nov;41 101155

Risk factors for poor prognosis in children and adolescents with COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

COVID-19 evidence and recommendations working group

Background: This study provides the first systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the predictors of unfavorable prognosis of COVID-19 in children and adolescents.
Methods: We searched literature databases until July 2021 for studies that investigated risk factors for unfavorable prognosis of children and adolescents with COVID-19. We used random-effects models to estimate the effect size with 95% confidence interval (CI).
Findings: We identified 56 studies comprising 79,104 individuals. Mortality was higher in patients with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) (odds ratio [OR]=58.00, 95% CI 6.39-526.79) and who were admitted to intensive care (OR=12.64, 95% CI 3.42-46.68). Acute respiratry distress syndrme (ARDS) (OR=29.54, 95% CI 12.69-68.78) and acute kidney injury (AKI) (OR=55.02, 95% CI 6.26-483.35) increased the odds to be admitted to intensive care; shortness of breath (OR=16.96, 95% CI 7.66-37.51) increased the need of respiratory support; and neurological diseases (OR=5.16, 95% CI 2.30-11.60), C-reactive protein (CRP) level ≥80 mg/L (OR=11.70, 95% CI 4.37-31.37) and D-dimer level ≥0.5ug/mL (OR=20.40, 95% CI 1.76-236.44) increased the odds of progression to severe or critical disease.
Interpretation: Congenital heart disease, chronic pulmonary disease, neurological diseases, obesity, MIS-C, shortness of breath, ARDS, AKI, gastrointestinal symptoms, elevated CRP and D-dimer are associated with unfavourable prognosis in children and adolescents with COVID-19.

Keywords: Adolescents; COVID-19; Children; Meta-analysis; Prognosis; Risk factor

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101155

medRxiv. 2021 Oct 18. pii: 2021.10.15.21265063. [Epub ahead of print]

Factors associated with severity of COVID-19 disease in a multicenter cohort of people with HIV in the United States, March-December 2020.

CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems

Background: Understanding the spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease in people with HIV (PWH) is critical to provide clinical guidance and implement risk-reduction strategies.
Objective: To characterize COVID-19 in PWH in the United States and identify predictors of disease severity.
Design: Observational cohort study.
Setting: Geographically diverse clinical sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS).
Participants: Adults receiving HIV care through December 31, 2020.
Measurements: COVID-19 cases and severity (hospitalization, intensive care, death).
Results: Of 16,056 PWH in care, 649 were diagnosed with COVID-19 between March-December 2020. Case fatality was 2%; 106 (16.3%) were hospitalized and 12 died. PWH with current CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 (aRR 2.68; 95%CI 1.93-3.71; P<.001) or lowest recorded CD4 count <200 (aRR 1.67; 95%CI 1.18-2.36; P<.005) had greater risk of hospitalization. HIV viral load suppression and antiretroviral therapy (ART) status were not associated with hospitalization, although the majority of PWH were suppressed (86%). Black PWH were 51% more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 compared to other racial/ethnic groups (aRR 1.51; 95%CI 1.04-2.19, P=.03). Chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and increased cardiovascular and hepatic fibrosis risk scores were associated with higher risk of hospitalization. PWH who were older, not on ART, with current CD4 <350, diabetes, and CKD were overrepresented amongst PWH who required intubation or died.
Limitations: Unable to compare directly to persons without HIV; underestimate of total COVID-19 cases.
Conclusions: PWH with CD4 <350 cells/mm 3 , low CD4/CD8 ratio, and history of CD4 <200, have a clear excess risk of severe COVID-19, after accounting for comorbidities also associated with severe outcomes. PWH with these risk factors should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination, early treatment, and monitored closely for worsening illness.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.15.21265063